How Can Artificial Intelligence Affect International Politics ?

Prof. Rasim Özgür Dönmez / Dean of Humanities and Social Sciences at Abdullah Gül University

Some countries are establishing Ministries for Artificial Intelligence, some are making investments with huge budgets. From international companies to big and small states, actors of the international system are preparing for the near future. How will artificial intelligence affect international political order and balances?

Artificial intelligence, one of the most frequently articulated and debated concepts of the day, was first uttered in 1956 at a conference at Dartmouth College, UK.1 In the following years, it became popular with many Hollywood movies such as The Terminator (1984) or 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968). Today, we are going through a time in which dystopian movies are almost becoming realities.

Innovations in artificial intelligence that we have been using to meet the needs of an increasing world population will affect not only many areas of our lives, but also transform state systems and international balances. Some countries that are aware of the situation have reached billion dollars of investments in artificial intelligence, and others have established Ministries for Artificial Intelligence; unfortunately, Turkey has yet to make a significant move in this regard.

Artificial intelligence systems can be explained in short as systems or machines that mimic human intelligence and can improve themselves recursively with the collected information.2 They can now collect data on their own, use it for their systems, and turn it into abstract thinking via self-programming.3 For instance, the artificial intelligence developed by Dr. Oded Ben-Tal, an expert of musical technology at Kingston University, London, started to make its own compositions after learning 23 thousand Irish folk music pieces.4 This tiny example can give an idea of how our lives may change in many areas.

Who does what in the artificial intelligence race?

Artificial intelligence was predominantly produced by the Japanese before 1980, after which British scientists came to the forefront. A new stage was reached in 1997 when Deep Blue, a computer developed by IBM (International Business Machines), a US-based brand, defeated the world's most famous chess master Garry Kasparov.5

At that stage, countries such as the US, Germany, China and Russia saw the undisputed power of artificial intelligence in the field of military-security as well as in commercial and medical matters. Within the context of power balance in international relations, the development and use of artificial intelligence has become an important element of state policies.

In addition to the artificial intelligence investment made by companies such as Amazon, Facebook and Google, the US federal government planned an investment of $ 4.9 billion in this field in 2020.6 Germany has allocated 500 million euros for the artificial intelligence budget in 2019, which is estimated to reach 3 billion euros by 2025.

Companies such as IBM, SONY, Ali Baba and Amazon are investing astronomically in artificial intelligence with state-private partnerships. Today, on the top 20 technology companies list, 9 companies are Chinese, 11 American. China aims to become one of the world leaders in artificial intelligence by 2030. 48 percent of AI “start-up” companies are Chinese. China's digital economy has reached 3.8 trillion dollars.7

In addition to the artificial intelligence investment made by companies such as Amazon, Facebook and Google, the US federal government planned an investment of $ 4.9 billion in this field in 2020.Germany has allocated 500 million euros for the artificial intelligence budget in 2019, which is estimated to reach 3 billion euros by 2025.9These countries are followed by the UK, France, Canada and Australia.

Russia is also ambitious about artificial intelligence: Moscow has asked foreign investors to invest $ 2 billion in Russian artificial intelligence firms in 2019, and its interest in this field is increasing each day.10Russian President Vladimir Putin's statement, "Those who monopolizes artificial intelligence would rule the world," explains Russian state policy quite well.11

Artificial intelligence and projection of a new world order

As can be seen, artificial intelligence has turned into a phenomenon of the international system without which countries cannot do and into which they have to invest more each day in order to maintain their position in the power balance. In this process, no big state has the luxury of not investing in this technology.

If this is the case, what kind of a world, political and international relations arena can we envision?

This is not an easy question to answer, yet dystopian movies of the US cinema may perhaps show us a glimpse.

First of all, within the scope of internal politics, it is evident that millions of people will become unemployed as a result of the use of artificial intelligence, and that a certain mass will become a security risk for states and upper classes that needs to be kept under control.

Moreover, we are entering a period in which politics is likely to be in the hands of a small minority with strong international ties. It seems that a period in which well-educated masses will govern the wider society, and a certain minority can access sensitive information await all with the exception of states where prosperity, education system, and welfare state governance is strong. In other words, we are on the verge of a kind of technocratic, plutocratic12 period in which large corporations dominate the world.

This probable future depicts for us cities (even planets) where a happy minority live with safe, clean water and air and manages large masses of unemployed people or people excluded by the system as if they are a risk as in Neill Blomkamp's “Elsyum,” starring Matt Damon and Jodie Foster, rather than the ones in George Orwell's 1984 novel, where the central structure surveils everyone.

Artificial intelligence seems to bring about a period in which governments restrict civil rights and freedoms within a logic of surveillance, and take into consideration demands of the society, but can easily manipulate them through artificial intelligence most of the time.

In this context, artificial intelligence seems to bring about a period in which governments restrict civil rights and freedoms within a logic of surveillance, and take into consideration demands of the society, but can easily manipulate them through artificial intelligence most of the time. The fact that two Chinese researchers have developed an artificial intelligence that recognizes potential criminals by looking at their faces confirms this suspicion.

How can artificial intelligence affect international relations?

The impact of artificial intelligence on international relations will be quite high. In place of the nation-state orientation of the 20th century, an international system composed of multiple systems and actors await us.

To give an example, establishment of a European army will not be a dream in the future since there will not be much need for manpower. It seems that in the future, small but rich countries with meager military power such as Singapore or the United Arab Emirates will grow in power militarily and will be heard more within the scope of security on the international arena.

Since artificial intelligence and artificial intelligence-based weapons will not only be in the state monopoly, we will enter a period in which non-state actors such as terrorist organizations will pose more threats in terms of security. This will increase the importance of cooperation with allies and neighboring states.

Here is another important question: How will new wars be?

A handful of elite people as heads of states have two options before them if they want to get rid of a large and useless population. The first option is to diminish the number of useless people with a conventional and destructive war. The second possible scenario would involve the method of asymmetric war against terrorism which takes longer but yields more destructive results. I believe the latter to be more likely. However, no matter what, we will enter a period in which a truly broad democracy and individual freedoms will be restricted and social equality will be further diminished.

Is Turkey ready for the era of artificial intelligence?

Turkey, too, has been investing in artificial intelligence as a key player in NATO and the international capitalist system. However, these investments are very weak compared to the countries mentioned above.

Turkey has yet to join the Artificial Intelligence Strategy adapted by 22 countries. For this reason, the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM) opened Turkey's national artificial intelligence strategy up for discussion in 2019.

At the same time, although Turkey is a medium-sized country which has unicorn companies (startups with a valuation exceeding $ 1 billion), these companies do not need big data (and artificial intelligence) as they are not global players.14 Because of that, the Turkish industry and companies remain distant to digitalization.

Although states seem willing in theory towards the artificial intelligence process, in practice, the private sector is always more entrepreneurial.15 However, considering the market, although artificial intelligence programs have been opened at Hacettepe University and TOBB Economics and Technology University, a high proportion of the first graduates will either find jobs abroad or work in jobs that are not related to their sector.

In short, use of artificial intelligence by global actors in both economy and security complexes and their investments in this field have put the world on an irreversible path. We are entering a period in which countries that cannot start this process will be erased from history. In this process, it would not be wrong to think that companies that can lead artificial intelligence will play important roles in the political control of medium-and-small-sized countries.

In international relations, it is a crystal-clear fact that countries that are small population-wise, but are rich will be stronger in these processes and become actors whose voices will be heard more. Who can guarantee that the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence established by the United Arab Emirates will not make significant military investments? In this context, a multi-polar world has been opened.

Turkey is an actor that understands the importance of the process, but has not made sufficient moves yet. It is inevitable for Turkey as an important actor in the region to take necessary steps in military and security areas as soon as possible.

References

1- “Yapay Zeka Nedir? Yapay Zekanın Tarihçesi ve Çeşitleri” http://www.milliyet.com.tr/yapay-zeka-nedir–yapay-zekanin-tarihcesi-ve-cesitleri-molatik-80/

2- “Yapay Zeka Nedir”, https://www.oracle.com/tr/artificial-intelligence/what-is-artificial-intelligence.html

3- “Yapay zekâ teknolojisi savaşın karakterini nasıl değiştirecek?”Euronews, 28-12-2018: https://tr.euronews.com/2018/12/28/yapay-zeka-teknolojisi-savasin-karakterini-nasil-degistirecek

4- “Bot Dylan Kendi Şarkısını Yapan Yapay Zeka”, RoboLoko, http://www.roboloko.com/bot-dylan-kendi-sarkisini-yazan-yapay-zeka/

5- “Yapay Zeka Nedir? Yapay Zekanın Tarihçesi ve Çeşitleri”.

6- “FindingArtificialIntelligence Money in theFiscal 2020 Budget” https://about.bgov.com/news/finding-artificial-intelligence-money-fiscal-2020-budget/

7- “Çin ve ABD’nin Yapay Zeka Savaşı”: https://www.akademisyenlik.com/fen-bilimleri/cin-ve-abdnin-yapay-zeka-savasi/

8- “FindingArtificialIntelligence Money in theFiscal 2020 Budget” https://about.bgov.com/news/finding-artificial-intelligence-money-fiscal-2020-budget/

9- “GermanGovernmentInvest 3 BillionEuros in AI”, https://ai-europe.eu/german-government-invest-3-billion-euros-in-ai/

10- “RussiaRaises $2Bln forInvestment in ArtificialIntelligence”, TheMoscow Times: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/05/31/russia-raises-2bln-for-investment-in-artificial-intelligence-a65824

11- “Putin: Yapay Zeka Alanında Tekelleşen Dünyayı Yönetir,” Hurriyet, 31.05.2019: http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/teknoloji/putin-yapay-zeka-alaninda-tekellesen-dunyayi-yonetir-41231399

12- Government by the wealthy.

13- “Çin Yapay Zekalı Yüz Tarama Teknolojisi ile Suçlu Yakalıyor”, Hurriyet: http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/teknoloji/cin-yapay-zekali-yuz-tarama-teknolojisi-ile-suclu-yakaliyor-40892992

14- “ WhyTurkeyneeds a NationalArtificialIntelligenceStrategy?” https://medium.com/make-innovation-work/why-turkey-needs-a-national-artificial-intelligence-strategy-df7e45ce10d4

15- “ArtificialIntelligenceera ‘opportunityforTurkey”, Hurriyet Daily News, july 15 2019: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/artificial-intelligence-era-opportunity-for-turkey-144960

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